Working Papers

Sadaf Vafa and Luwei Ying, "Why Do Firms Fund Terrorism?"

Why do mainstream actors choose to support violent extremist movements? This question is critical for understanding wartime mobilization and fighting against global violent extremism. This study provides an answer by examining the behavior of private sector firms, particularly their financial backing of radical Islamic militant groups, which are among the most significant violent global movements. Our comprehensive analyses evaluate hypotheses related to ideological alignment, economic strategic considerations, and the coercion by militant groups. We collected extensive data on firms from Afghanistan, Iraq, Kuwait, Mali, Palestinian Territories, Sudan, and Syria, using the Orbis database. We examined these companies’ public records to determine who funded radical Islamic groups and when, referencing the U.S. Department of Treasury and the EU sanction lists. By applying advanced geospatial techniques, we correlated firm behavior with highly localized factors such as ethno-religious compositions, sector-specific resources, stakeholder networks, and local government regulations. These factors were then mapped against the territorial control and violent attacks of extremist groups to infer the motivations and incentives behind the financial support provided by the firms. This study enhances the academic comprehension of wartime mobilization and the incentives for mainstream entities to support extremist actors. Consequently, this research offers significant insights for global counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism strategies, emphasizing the importance of severing material support channels to combat extremism.


David Carter, Luwei Ying, Sadaf Vafa "Historical Border Instability and the Rise of Populism".

International borders are central to politics, as their locations constitute the international system of states and define political reality for individual citizens. Accordingly, much research shows that whether states’ shared borders are stable or not shapes patterns of conflict and cooperation in international relations. Recent work focuses on how stability or instability in international borders affects individual attitudes and behavior, which is central to most mechanisms that link international borders to political outcomes. For instance, Abramson, Carter and Ying (2022) show that whether individuals live in localities that experienced historical border instability or not has strong, persistent effects on their levels of trust in both government and their fellow citizens. In this article, we argue and show that the historical border instability also profoundly shapes geographic variation in the degree to which localities are part of the contemporary “globalization backlash”. Specifically, we show that individuals in localities in Europe that experienced more historical border changes are significantly more likely to support populist candidates relative to their co-nationals in neighboring areas without similar histories of border instability.


Nicole Iturriaga and Sadaf Vafa, "Forensic Technology and the Tulsa Race Massacre".

Forensic-based human rights has proven effective in achieving a form of justice for past state-sponsored terror, particularly in cases where the atrocities are not recent (Iturriaga, 2022; Rosenblatt 2015; Rubin, 2014). While this approach has been employed globally in regions like the Southern Cone, Africa, and Europe, its application in the United States has been limited until now. This research investigates the role and impact of recent exhumation efforts aimed at locating and identifying the victims of the state-sanctioned violence during the Black Wall Street Massacre of 1921 in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Through historical analysis and interviews with 35 individuals, including descendants, technicians, activists, and local residents, we argue that forensic-based human rights serves as a means of delivering long-awaited justice in the American context. However, the implementation of forensic-based justice in Tulsa has encountered various challenges. These challenges include an overreliance on depoliticizing the past and present manifestations of racism and white supremacy, a lack of transparency from city officials, and limited support and endorsement from the affected community.